Population projections are very important for future policy-making. Determination of current population trends and predicting future population structure according to these trends provide making healthier policies. It should not be ignored that population projections are not a forecast but an application that shows the progress of the population in case of current population trends continue or reflecting the trends of other countries which lived similar processes previously after an analysis.
Population projections, which was last produced according to the results of 2008 Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS) and 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, are renewed due to improvements on the birth and death data obtained from registration systems, formation of a serial of migration statistics from ABPRS and to meet the national and international needs. The study for the population projections were carried out by a working group including the participants from related university and institutions.
Population projections were made on the basis of the results of 2012 ABPRS and produced for both Turkey in total and 81 provinces. Besides, projections were made by single ages until the year 2075 for Turkey. In addition, for the first time in our country, much-needed population projections at provincial level produced officially and announced to the public with this news release. Changes in the population of all the provinces between 2013-2023 were projected by analyzing the trends of the demographic events and population projections were produced for all provinces. On the other hand alternative population projections reflecting different fertility variants were also made. The details of the study are provided in the tables of this news release.The population of Turkey is expected to be 84 247 088 in 2023
The population of Turkey will be 84 247 088 in 2023. The population will increase slowly to the year 2050, and it will reach to its highest value with 93 475 575 people in this year. After 2050, the population will start to decline, and it is expected to be 89 172 088 in 2075.Population of Turkey, 2013-2075The proportion of elderly population in the population of Turkey will reach to 10.2% in 2023
If the current trends of demographic indicators persist, the population of Turkey will continue ageing. Elderly population, which is the population at 65 years of age and over, is 5.7 million in 2012 with a proportion of 7.5% and this population will reach to 8.6 million people with a proportion of 10.2% in 2023.Half of the population of Turkey will be over age 34 in 2023
While the median age of the population of Turkey was 30.1 in 2012, it will increase to 34 in 2023. The median age of the male population was 29.5 in 2012, will increase to 33.3 in 2023. The median age of the female population was 30.6 in 2012 will be 34.6 in 2023.
The median age of the population of Turkey will be 42.9 in 2050 and 47.4 in 2075. The median age of the male population will be 41.8 in 2050, and it will reach to 46 in 2075. The median age will be 44 in 2050, and 48.7 in 2075 for females. Median age, 2012-2075The population of İstanbul will be 16.6 million in 2023
While the population of 60 provinces will increase, the population of 21 provinces will decrease in 2023 compared to 2012 ABPRS results. The order of the most populous four provinces will not change. While the population of Ankara will increase to 5.9 million, the population of İzmir will be 4.4 million, and the population of Bursa will be 3.1 million. The place of Adana, which is the fifth populous province in 2012, will be taken by the province of Antalya with a population of 2.6 million.Most populous 10 provinces in 2012 Most populous 10 provinces in 2023Sinop will stil have the highest median age in 2023
Çorum will follow Sinop (44.4), which will have the highest median age, with a median age of 42.9 in 2023. While the median age was lowest in Şırnak (18.5) in 2012, it will be lowest in Şanlıurfa in 2023 with a median age of 20.8.5 provinces that have the highest median age, 2012-2023Şanlıurfa will have the highest proportion of child population in 2023 with 38.6%
Şırnak had the highest proportion of child population (population at 0-14 age group) in 2012 with 42%. Şanlıurfa was the second with 41.5% after Şırnak. In 2023, Şanlıurfa will have the highest proportion of child population, and Ağrı will follow Şanlıurfa with 35.2%. 5 provinces that have the highest proportion of child population, 2012-2023The proportion of elderly population in the total population will be 27.7% in 2075
Elderly population (population at 65 years of age and over) will be 8.6 million in 2023, it will increase to 19.5 million in 2050, and 24.7 million in 2075. The proportion of elderly population in the total population will increase to 10.2% in 2023, and it will be 20.8% in 2050 and 27.7% in 2075, respectively.Population pyramid, 2013-2050 Population pyramid, 2013-2075If the average number of children per woman would be 2.5 in 2050, the total population will be 119 million in 2075
If the average number of children per woman will reach to 2.5 in 2050, the population will be 119 million in 2075.
The effect of fertility rate changes of Turkey on the size of the population, age structure and other demographic processes was examined with two different scenarios except for the basic scenario (Scenario 1) for the population projections. The main difference among these scenarios is the change in the average number of children per woman by years. These scenarios:Scenario 1 (Basic scenario):
In this scenario total fertility rate decreases in its natural flow and reaches to its lowest value 1.65 in 2050, and then increases after this year and reaches the value of 1.85 in 2075.Scenario 2:
In this scenario total fertility rate increases to 2.11 in 2020 and to 2.50 in 2050 gradually, and then remains stable between the years 2050 and 2075.Scenario 3:
In this scenario total fertility rate increases gradually to 3 in 2050, and then remains stable to 2075.Total fertility rate, Turkey, 1976-2075Population and elderly population according to different fertility variantsPopulation size of Turkey will fall to 24th rank among the World countries, in 2075
According to the 2012 based population projections of United Nations, world population is approximately 7 billions and 52 millions people. Turkey, which forms 1.1 percent of the world population in 2012 is the 18th of most populated country.
While the world population will be approximately 9 billions and 306 millions people in 2050, Turkey will drop to 20th in rank, according to the basic projection scenario. In 2075, world population size will increase to 9 billions and 905 millions people. The rank of Turkey will change as 24.
Population projections for 2013 and after were made by cohort-component method. Cohort-component method is based on lifelong monitoring of the cohorts that are at the same age. The cohorts are annual birth cohorts (age-cohorts). The components are births, deaths and migration.
Unestimated changes in population may cause differentiation from the real population size. Population projections are revised due to new demographic trends, when various radical changes are determined.
The population figures of these projections differ from the older ones, about being produced as end-of-the-year values, targeting to be comparable with the results of Address Based Population Registration System.
Alternative projection scenarios, that allow to observe the different aspects for future of the population size and pattern, have been produced to make awareness about ageing of population, fertility and decline of fertility, which are recent public discussion topics.
“World Population Prospects, 2010 Revision” publication of The United Nations was used to make comparisons with the other countries. Population projections of such countries and official projections of TURKSTAT, which were made for Turkey, were compared to provide information about the place of population of Turkey in the world. The outputs of basic scenario (Scenario 1) were used for those comparisons.
“PADIS-Int” software, which was produced by China National Population and Family Planning Commission (NPFPC) was used for designing and making projections.