Economic confidence index decreased by 15.4%
Economic confidence index is a composite index that encapsulates consumers’ and producers’ evaluations, expectations and tendencies about general economic situation. Economic confidence index is combined by means of a weighted aggregation of normalized sub-indices of consumer confidence index, seasonally adjusted real sector (manufacturing industry), services, retail trade and construction confidence indices. Detailed information about the topic can be reached from TurkStat (http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do?alt_id=1102
Economic confidence index dropped by 15.4% compared to previous month, decreasing to 74.85 from 88.50 in March. This decrease in economic confidence index stemmed from the decreases in consumer, real sector (manufacturing industry), services, retail trade and construction confidence indices.
Consumer confidence index decreased by 5.4%, decreasing to 64.39 from 68.06 in March. Real sector confidence index decreased by 3% in March compared to the previous month, while the index was 104 in February, it dropped to 100.90 in March.
Services confidence index decreased by 0.7%, decreasing to 101.25 from 101.96. Retail trade confidence index, which was 103.40 in February, decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous month and became 102.97 in March. Construction confidence index decreased in March compared to February. Construction confidence index dropped to 83.67, decreasing by 1.6% compared to the previous month.The next release on this subject will be on April 28, 2015.
In the calculation of economic confidence index, sectoral weights are not directly applied to the five confidence indicators themselves but to their normalized individual sub-indices. The point of normalization is to make variables comparable to each other. Consumer sectors weight is applied to its four sub-indices, real sectors (manufacturing industry) weight is applied to its eight sub-indices, services sectors weight is applied to its three sub-indices, retail trade sectors weight is applied to its three sub-indices and construction sectors weight is applied to its two sub-indices.
Consumer confidence index as one of the composing indicators of economic confidence index is calculated from Consumer Tendency Survey results, which is conducted by the cooperation of TurkStat and Central Bank of Turkey. Real sector (manufacturing industry) confidence index is calculated by Central Bank of Turkey and services, retail trade and construction confidence indices are calculated by TurkStat.
Economic confidence index indicates an optimistic outlook about the general economic situation when the index is above 100, on contrary it indicates a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100.