Population projections were renewed
Due to the needs resulting from the changes occurred in Turkey's population structure in recent years, population projections were renewed in accordance with the Revision Policy of Turkish Statistical Institute. In this context, new population projections based on the results of the 2017 Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS) were produced according to three separate scenarios (one of which was the main scenario) including different assumptions of fertility and migration. In this press release, the results of the main scenario, which is based on the assumption that the current trends in demographic indicators will continue, are presented.
The population of Turkey is expected to exceed 100 million in 2040
If the current trends of demographic indicators continue, the population of Turkey, which was 80 million 810 thousand 525 people according to the results of 2017 ABPRS, is expected to reach 86 million 907 thousand 367 people in 2023 and 100 million 331 thousand 233 people in 2040. The population will increase until the year 2069, and will reach its highest value with 107 million 664 thousand 79 people in this year. The population of the country is forecasted to decline after this year and it is expected to be 107 million 100 thousand 904 people in 2080.
Population of Turkey, 2018-2080
The population of İstanbul will reach 16.3 million in 2023
While the population of 68 provinces will increase, the population of 13 provinces will decrease in 2023 compared to 2017 ABPRS results. The order of the most populous five provinces will not change. The most populated province will be İstanbul with 16.3 million in 2023. This province will be followed by Ankara with 6.1 million, İzmir with 4.6 million, Bursa with 3.2 million and Antalya with 2.7 million in 2023, respectively.
Population ageing in Turkey will continue
In Turkey, life expectancy at birth is increasing and the population continues ageing. Median age of population, which is an important indicator of age structure, is expected to be 32 in 2018, 33.5 in 2023, 38.5 in 2040, 42.3 in 2060 and 45 in 2080.
The proportion of elderly population, which is defined as the population at 65 years of age and over, is expected to be 8.7% in 2018, 10.2% in 2023, 16.3% in 2040, 22.6% in 2060 and 25.6% in 2080.
Population pyramid, 2018-2040 Population pyramid, 2018-2080
The proportion of population in working age will be 67.2% in 2023 and 58.7% in 2080
The proportion of population in 15-64 working age group is expected to be 67.8% in 2018, 67.2% in 2023, 64.4% in 2040, 60.4% in 2060 and 58.7% in 2080.
The proportion of child population, which is the population in the 0-14 age group, is expected to be 23.5% in 2018, 22.6% in 2023, 19.3% in 2040, 16.9% in 2060 and 15.7% in 2080.
Population by age group and year, 2018, 2023, 2040, 2060, 2080
Population projections for Turkey were produced at country level until 2080 and at province level until 2025. The study for the population projections was carried out by a committee and sub-working groups including the participants from related universities and institutions.
The results of population projections were produced with three different scenarios. In addition to the main scenario given in this press release, high and low scenarios were examined in the study. The results of high and low scenarios are provided in the attached tables of this press release. Detailed explanations are given in metadata.
In this press release, end-of-the-year projection values are presented in order to be comparable with the annual ABPRS results.