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World Population Day - Period : 2017
The theme of World Population Day was determined as family planning for 2017
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Population Projections - Period : 2013-2075
The population of Turkey is expected to be 84 247 088 in 2023
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Statistical Tables and Dynamic Search
Analytical Framework, Concepts, Definitions, and Classifications
The aim is to produce national and regional population projections by using the current data sources. Cohort-component method, which projects the effects of many demographic indicators on age-sex structure of the population was executed. Cohort-component method bases on lifelong monitoring of the cohorts that are at the same age, by fertility, mortality and migration components. The cohorts are annual birth cohorts (age-cohorts). The components are births, deaths and migration.
Regional projections have been produced in 81 provinces (Nuts3) detail. In this respect, the study is performed as the first of such an official studies.
• Separete projection of Turkey total population (2013-2075),
• Seperate projections for each provinces (2013-2023).
As the data source, administrative registers and registration systems were used mainly.
At the design and production stages of projections, “PADIS-Int” software was used.
Scope of the Data
It is the same with the population covered by Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS). In ABPRS, whole of Turkish Republic citizens and foreign nationals living within the boundaries of the country (de-jure) have been covered. Both institutional and non-institutional population was covered. Pattern of institutional population was also taken into consideration at the projection process.
Current results of Address Based Population Registration System (2012 ABPRS) which was set up according to the Population Registration Law numbered 5490, was used for projections.
All calculation processes was done according to the requirements of the cohort component method.
In 2012 ABPRS, which was taken as the base population, age correction has been done for late registrations of births. This correction has been done in accordance with annual “birth registration ratios” (based on year of registry) and is based on cohorts.
During the projection designing, it has been assumed that the slight decrease in fertility and declining of infant mortality rate (IMR) has been taken into account. In this respect, detailed literature study was done and historical development of the world countries were investigated.
Life tables were developed by using IMR values which were derived from administrative registers, via MATCH module of MORTPAK Demography Applications software. By this way, e0 (life expectancy) values were obtained. These values were analyzed by sex aggregation and also literature review was made. The trends of different countries and assumptions for Turkey were evaluated by the data source of UN- World Population Prospects.
In order to calculate mortality rates, “Coale Demeny-West” Model Life Tables (Coale and Demeny, 1983) was used as the optimal model for our country’s mortality structure.
For international migration, 2010, 2011 and 2012 ABPRS results were used and annual net migration by sex, age and province was estimated by residual method.
For internal migration, register movements derived from ABPRS were used. An assumption was produced by calculating the mean of the trends of annual register movements and age-sex patterns.
Trends of fertility rates and historical data sources were investigated and future attitudes were assumed by demographic approaches.
Reference periods of all demographic indicators that were used are taken into consideration, end-of-the-year values for 2012 were calculated after determaning the trends. So, all factors that affect the projection were combined at the same time crossection.
Firstly, “Scenario 1”, designed as the basic projection for Turkey and outputs were provided, up to the year 2075. The assumptions and trends of basic scenario till 2023 were used for provincial projections. The assumptions for provincial projections were developed by usind the mathematical relationships between the indicator of the provinces and Turkey in total.
Projections of Turkey and all provinces was produces separately, and results were made by calibrating the provincial values to Turkey total population.
Characteristics of Basic Data Sources
As the basic data sources, ABPRS and MERNIS resgiters were used.
The applications were executed by the PADIS-Int software which was equipped for personal computers and developed by China Population and Development Research Center (CPDRC). This software makes population projections based on cohort-component method.
Information form on revision will be carried out in 2016 for the statistics produced in this scope of this press release can be accessed from the link below.
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