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Analytical Framework, Concepts, Definitions, and Classifications
The aim of this study is to produce national and provincial population projections by using the current data sources. Cohort-component method, which reflects the effects of various demographic indicators on age-sex structure of the population, was used. Cohort-component method is based on lifelong monitoring of cohorts of the same age group according to their fertility, mortality and migration patterns. The cohorts are annual birth cohorts (age-cohorts). The components are births, deaths and migration.
Regional projections have been produced for all 81 provinces (NUTS-3). This is the second official study which provides provincial projections.
Separate projection of Turkey total population (2018-2080),
Separate projections for each province (2018-2025).
Only the statistics that are produced based on administrative registers and published by TurkStat were used as the data source.
Macro codes which are developed by TurkStat experts and written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) programming language in Microsoft Excel environment were used for the design and production of projections.
Scope of the Data
It is the population covered by Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS). In ABPRS, all Turkish Republic citizens and foreign nationals residing within the boundaries of the country have been covered (de-jure population). Foreign citizens data refers to individuals;
Who are registered in ABPRS after holding residence/work permit and whose country of citizenship is other than Turkish Republic,
Who are holding 3 months or longer residence permit/work permit valid at reference day and whose country of citizenship is other than Turkish Republic,
Who renounced the Turkish citizenship with the authorization of Turkish Republic and who staying in Turkey by registering in ABPRS.
The Syrian citizens who are under temporary protection are not covered in the scope of projections, since their status is out of the definition of “de-jure” population which is based on residence.
In the calculation of projections, all the population who reside in institutional places (barracks, prisons, nursing homes, university student dormitories, etc.) are covered and their distribution is taken into account.
During the design and production stages of the projections, a Committee that consists of representatives from academic and official institutions/organizations and sub-working groups for fertility, mortality and migration were constituted under chairmanship of TurkStat. Within the context of activities carried out by sub-working groups, evaluations about the current and future demographic circumstances of Turkey were made; backward analysis of historical data, problematic points and limitations were discussed. Provincial age and sex distribution of demographic data and their trends were analyzed. Thus, projections and assumptions regarding future dynamics of fertility, mortality and migration have been determined.
In addition, literature was reviewed and UN- World Population Prospects was evaluated in terms of the trends of different countries and assumptions for Turkey.
All calculation processes were done according to the requirements of the cohort-component method.
2017 ABPRS results were taken as the base population. Age correction was done to 0 (zero) age to prevent under coverage which is the result of possible late births registrations. This correction was applied in accordance with annual “birth registration ratios” (based on the year of registry) and the provincial differences on registration ratio were considered, as well.
“Birth Statistics” of TurkStat were used for fertility calculations. Current and historical trends of national and provincial total fertility rates and age-specific fertility rates were considered. Cluster analysis were made according to the current and past fertility trends of the provinces by considering diversity of regional and demographic differences in Turkey. The provinces were divided into groups according to results of the cluster analysis. Assumptions were made for each province in the condition of ensuring all provinces converge to the future national fertility trends by separate coefficients that were calculated for all fertility groups.
For mortality calculations, “Death Statistics” of TurkStat were used for the initial values and accordingly the most recent results of “Life Tables”, which have been produced by TurkStat regularly since 2014, were also used. Whilst Model Life Tables were used for the calculation processes of the previous population projection studies, this is the first time that country-specific life tables that are based on actual data. In this respect, the study is performed as the first of such an official studies, as well. Results of the mentioned life tables were converted to survival ratios by age and sex via “Brass Logit Life Table System”. Future mortality projections were produced by using those survival ratios properly with the assumed life expectancy at birth values. In addition, current and historical trends of life expectancy at birth levels for provinces and Turkey were considered. Convergence of provincial values to the relevant assumptions of Turkey was assumed and was taken into account during the calculation processes.
International migration, which is the most difficult to predict component of population projections has a considerable effect on population structures and sizes of the countries. Migration flows are quiet difficult to forecast, and usually depend on short or mid-term social, economic, political or environmental fluctuations. Turkey has been under exposure of considerably high amounts of migration flows in the recent past, because of the unstable conditions in neighbour countries. Within this context, international migration statistics based on administrative registers and population registration system were produced for the first time. 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 ABPRS data were used for international migration procedures. Results of residual method, annual and monthly fluctuations of data on foreigners, results of demographic balance equation were analyzed. Besides, international migration assumptions including sex, age pattern and provincial distributions were constituted by taking into account of annual net migration sizes in connection with suggestions of the migration working group.
Internal migration statistics that are derived within the context of ABPRS were used for the migration between the provinces. The current and past trends of age and sex distribution of internal migration were taken into account. Average values of annual internal migration size and its patterns were calculated and used.
Three fundamental scenarios were designed and used during the preparation stages of the population projections. The scenarios were determined by consideration of variations in fertility and international migration.
The scenarios of population projections are given below:
Main scenario is the basic scenario which is used for the population projections. It is constituted by the compound effects of total fertility rate and international migration. It was assumed that, in 2018-2023 period, the total fertility rate will stay constant at 2.10 which is accepted as replacement level, will linearly decline in a natural way and will reach to 2.05 in 2030, to 1.95 in 2040, to 1.85 in 2050 and 1.80 in 2080. International net migration was assumed to stay constant at 150 000 until 2023, to decline to 100 000 in 2030, to 60 000 in 2040, to 40 000 in 2050 and to stay constant at that level until 2080.
It is based on higher assumptions for fertility and net international migration than the main scenario. It is constituted by the compound effects of total fertility rate and international migration. It was assumed that, in 2018-2023 period, the total fertility rate will stay constant at 2.20, will linearly decline in a natural way and will reach to 2.15 in 2030, to 2.10 in 2040, to 2.05 in 2050 and 2.00 in 2080. International net migration was assumed to stay constant at 210 000 until 2023, to decline to 160 000 in 2030, to120 000 in 2040, to 100 000 in 2050 and to stay constant at that level until 2080.
It is based on lower assumptions for fertility and net international migration than the main scenario. It is constituted by the compound effects of total fertility rate and international migration. It was assumed that, in 2018-2023 period, the total fertility rate will stay constant at 2.00, will linearly decline in a natural way and will reach to 1.95 in 2030, to 1.80 in 2040, to 1.65 in 2050 and 1.60 in 2080. International net migration was assumed to stay constant at 90 000 until 2023, to decline to 40 000 in 2030, to zero in 2040, to be converted to negative levels after 2040, to -20 000 in 2050 and to stay constant at that level until 2080.
Characteristics of Basic Data Sources
ABPRS and Central Civil Registration system (MERNIS) registers were used as the main data sources.
Macro codes written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) programming language that are run in Microsoft Excel environment were used in the design and production of projections.
This application has been designed by TurkStat experts and developed to meet the needs by considering the conditions of Turkey. It produces population projections by cohort component method.
Detailed information on the revision policy of the data published in the press release can be found
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