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Analytical Framework, Concepts, Definitions, and Classifications
Monthly Consumer Tendency Survey aims to measure present situation assessments and future period expectations of consumers' on personal financial standing and general economic course and determining consumers' expenditure and saving tendencies for near future.
Assessments, expectations and tendencies are measured under the following topic items:
Personal financial standing:
Consumers’ assessments on financial situation of their household at present compared to the last 12 months, financial situation expectation of their household over the next 12 months, statement on current financial situation of their household, borrowing money probability over the next 3 months.
General economic situation:
Consumers’ assessments on current general economic situation in Turkey compared to past 12 months, general economic situation expectation in Turkey over the next 12 months, number of people unemployed expectation over the next 12 months, buying time condition of durable goods in present period, saving time condition in present period, assessment on consumer prices change rate over the last 12 months, expectation for consumer prices change rate over the next 12 months, expectation for wages change rate over the next 12 months.
Expenditure and saving tendencies:
Consumers’ assessments on spending money on semi-durable goods over the next 3 months, spending money on durable goods over the next 12 months, the probability of buying a car over the next 12 months, the probability of buying or building a home over the next 12 months, the probability of spending money on home improvements or renovations over the next 12 months, saving probability over the next 12 months.
Consumer Confidence Index is calculated by the following sub- indices:
Financial situation expectation of household over the next 12 months
General economic situation expectation over the next 12 months
Number of people unemployed expectation over the next 12 months
The probability of saving over the next 12 months
The International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08) is used.
Scope of the Data
The monthly sample size of the survey is 4884 households. Person at the age of 16 and above as a representative of the household is covered. The person is selected randomly by the data entry programme.
Indices are compiled in accordance with the balance method of European Union.
The balance value is calculated for each tendency question by taking the difference between the percentages of positive and negative responses. Diffusion indices are obtained for each question by adding 100 to this balance value.
Then, the general index is calculated by taking arithmetic means of diffusion indices of the selected questions to be covered in consumer confidence index.
The index is evaluated between 0 and 200. If it is above 100, it means consumer confidence is optimistic, if it is below 100, consumer confidence is pessimistic.
Characteristics of Basic Data Sources
Source of data for Consumer Confidence Index is monthly Consumer Tendency Survey which is applied in Turkey.
Consumer Tendency Survey carried out as a monthly survey in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Institute and Central Bank of Turkey has been applied by a computer-based, face-to-face interview method. The survey has started to be applied in accordance with “The Joint Harmonised European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys” in 2012 and implemented by European Commission co-funding since May 2015.
The fieldwork period of the survey is the first two weeks of each month. The survey results concerning the reference month are published on the third week of the month according to the National Data Release Calendar.
Revision is not foreseen in 2019. In case of any revision it will be shared with the public.
The explanation on the main revision of the Consumer Confidence Index carried out in 2012 is available in the link below:
Consumer Tendency Survey, which was carried out as a module to the Household Labor Force Survey between 2004-2012, has been implemented within the scope of “The Joint Harmonised European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys” since 2012.
Backcasting method using Reg-ARIMA model was applied in order to produce the backcasted index serial of the consumer confidence index for the period 2004-2011 and published in 2013.
In 2017, four sub-indices that constitute the consumer confidence index are backcasted for the period 2004-2011, with the multivariate model-based approach.
The backcasting series of the Consumer Confidence Index and its sub-indices can be reached from the link below:
An explanatory document on backcasting methods is available in the link below:
Seasonal and Calendar Adjustment:
Seasonal effects prevent observing the general trend of data because of their temporary characteristics. Therefore, identification of seasonal patterns of short term indicators plays crucial role in order to make reliable comparisons between consecutive periods.
Method and Software Used
Currently, TurkStat carries out the seasonal adjustment of Consumer Confidence Indices (CCI), using TRAMO-SEATS methodology based on ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model estimation developed by Banco de Espana and also suggested by Eurostat. In the application of this method JDemetra+ is used which is the software developed by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) in cooperation with the Deutsche Bundesbank and Eurostat in accordance with the Guidelines of the European Statistical System.
Seasonal Adjustment Process
The seasonal adjustment process of CCI begins at the end of each year with the determination of model specifications, calendar effects and outliers of next year. This specified composition is kept fixed throughout the year to adjust seasonal effects. At the end of the year, just like the previous year, the specification of econometric estimation models for the following year is determined. The identified process repeats itself in a cyclical manner each year.
Within the coverage of CCI, indices based on individual questions concerning the consumer tendency are seasonally adjusted. As the calendar related effects are not statistically significant, CCI are published only as seasonally adjusted.
Direct or Indirect Approach
Seasonally adjusted figures of CCI are produced following the indirect approach. Namely, indices based on individual questions concerning the consumer tendency are seasonally adjusted and then aggregated to derive seasonally adjusted CCI.
For CCI “partial concurrent adjustment” is carried out. Seasonal adjustment model specifications, outliers and calendar effects are identified annually while the parameters and filters are re-estimated each month as new data is available. CCI series are not subject to revision due to seasonal adjustment.
CCI have been published as seasonally adjusted.
data is derived from unadjusted data by removing effects originating from seasonal effects. Seasonally adjusted data should be used in comparisons regarding the previous month/period.
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